OH-Sen: Portman Holds Early Lead

Public Policy Polling (1/17-18, registered voters):

Jennifer Brunner (D): 34

Rob Portman (R): 42

Undecided: 24

Lee Fisher (D): 39

Rob Portman (R): 41

Undecided: 20

Tim Ryan (D): 34

Rob Portman (R): 40

Undecided: 26

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Portman begins the race with an early edge over the potential Democratic field, but it’s nothing insurmountable. Name recognition may be something of a factor here, but interestingly, Portman registers the highest percentage of ambivalence among voters of the four names tested; a full 49% have no opinion of him, while his favorable/unfavorable score clocks in at 28-23.

By comparison, Fisher’s numbers are 40-32, Ryan’s are 26-27, and Brunner (Ohio’s Secretary of State) has the highest unfavorables of the bunch at 34-36. Undoubtedly, Brunner’s involvement in a plethora of lawsuits during and after the election (most notably surrounding early voting, but also the drawn-out OH-15 saga) drew a good deal of scorn from the Ohio GOP. Perhaps those numbers might settle down some when the ’08 election fades farther away in our rear view mirrors — or perhaps not.

Portman also scores very highly among Republican voters — he draws in a full 80% of Republicans off the bat against Fisher and Brunner (and 74% against Ryan), while the potential Democratic candidates are only drawing between 59% (Brunner) and 68% (Fisher) of Democrats. Still, with the kind of baggage that Portman is carrying, a good campaign should be able to shore up these numbers over the next two years.

14 thoughts on “OH-Sen: Portman Holds Early Lead”

  2. Though you would think as a cabinet member Portman would be slightly more known and those that aren’t aware will learn very quickly all about him.

  3. If I were the DSCC, I’d be planning an early negative ad blitz against Portman. Nothing hyperbolic, just tie him very closely to the Bush economy and NAFTA-style free trade deals, preferably using press coverage which was originally written to be favourable.

    I might also combine that with mailers in key parts of the state, just to bring his cross-over appeal down a couple of notches.

  4. I’m sure Sherrod Brown started off losing to Dewine in the polls, but he improved over the course of the campaign and ended up winning by 12%. Tim Ryan can too.

  5. 1. Too many undecideds this early, which makes sense.  Numbers are going to be fluid until name recognition ticks up.  

    2. The early thing to look at are approval and disapproval ratings.  Those are the most relevant things right now.  

  7. Right now all people know is the names “Portman” and “Ryan.”  Once the name Portman becomes synonomous with being Bush’s pointman on free trade his numbers will pull a Blackwell/DeWine.

  8. with Englishlefty that Portman needs a Conrad-Burns-treating. Whether the DSCC or the ODP fund these ads doesnt matter, as long as we define our opponent early.

    I still prefer Ryan, Fisher’s relatively stronger showing is probably due to his statewide name recognition.  

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